What Happened

Emigration from Canada reached an all-time high in 2024, with over 118,000 residents leaving the country. According to the latest figures from Statistics Canada released in 2025, this trend has accelerated, with 54,530 people departing in just the first six months of the year. This volume represents the highest number of emigrants ever recorded for a first-half period in Canadian history. British Columbia and Ontario continue to be the primary sources of these departures, with BC seeing its highest-ever Q2 emigration numbers. The data indicates that British Columbians are 61% more likely to leave the country than the average Canadian, while Ontarians are leaving at a rate about 20% higher than the national average. Newfoundland and Labrador recorded the lowest emigration rate, with only 118 residents leaving in the first half of 2025. Historically, emigration tends to spike in the second half of the year, suggesting that the 2025 totals may rise further.

Why It Matters

The scale of emigration highlights a significant shift in Canadian demographic trends, driven largely by cost of living pressures and housing affordability issues. When residents leave in record numbers, it signals a loss of confidence in the domestic economy and housing market. For British Columbia, which accounts for 22% of all emigration despite having only 13.7% of the national population, this outflow represents a substantial drain on the local labor force and consumer base. The high departure rates in Ontario, which contributes 47% of emigrants, further underscore the widespread nature of the issue across Canada's most populous provinces. This exodus challenges the assumption that population growth will automatically sustain housing demand, as the net population change is now heavily dependent on immigration to offset these losses.

Local Vancouver / Burnaby Context

In the Greater Vancouver and Burnaby context, this national brain drain has direct implications for housing demand and rental market dynamics. While Canada attracts top global talent, the fact that opportunities and residents are leaving suggests a misalignment between policy and lived economic reality. For local investors and homeowners, the departure of residents can create short-term volatility in rental occupancy and resale liquidity. However, the structural reliance on immigration to fill labor gaps means that the long-term demand floor remains supported by newcomers, even as native-born residents exit. The high emigration rate in BC, where 211 people per 100,000 residents leave, indicates that the housing market is not insulated from broader economic headwinds. This trend requires a more nuanced view of market stability, as the traditional drivers of price growth are being tested by sustained out-migration.

Market Impact

The record emigration numbers suggest a potential cooling in organic housing demand, particularly in the resale and rental markets of BC and Ontario. For owners, this may translate to increased competition for tenants and buyers, as fewer locals are available to enter the market. For the condo sector, where investment density is high, the departure of residents could lead to a rise in listings as owners seek to exit or reduce leverage. However, the impact is likely to be mitigated by the continued influx of immigrants, which has historically offset domestic out-migration. The key variable is the net population change; if emigration continues to outpace immigration in specific regions, local price appreciation may stagnate or decline relative to national averages.

Builder / Developer Perspective

For builders and developers, the record emigration rates pose a risk to pre-sale absorption and rental project viability. If domestic demand continues to weaken, the reliance on immigration to fill new units becomes critical. Developers must assess whether the pipeline of new supply is aligned with the net population growth rather than gross immigration numbers. In markets like BC, where emigration is disproportionately high, the feasibility of new projects may depend on securing non-domestic buyers or ensuring strong rental yields to offset potential sales delays. The high cost of construction and financing adds another layer of risk, as developers cannot rely on rapid price appreciation to protect margins if demand softens due to out-migration.

BurnabyHouse Insight

The data reveals a critical inflection point for the Canadian housing market: the end of guaranteed organic demand growth. For Burnaby and Vancouver, the high emigration rate from BC means that the market is no longer insulated from national economic trends. Investors must shift their focus from pure appreciation plays to cash flow and risk management, as the departure of residents reduces the buffer against market corrections. The local intelligence suggests that while immigration remains a key driver, the net population change is the true metric of market health. In a scenario where emigration outpaces immigration, even supply-constrained markets like BC will face significant headwinds, making due diligence on net population flows more important than ever.