What Happened

A new Re/Max Canada report covering January 1 to April 30, 2025, reveals a significant rebalance in Canada’s luxury real estate market, with smaller markets outperforming traditional high-end hubs. Sales in Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, and Ottawa grew by more than 10 per cent during this period, contrasting sharply with declines in established centres. Edmonton posted the largest year-over-year increase, with luxury sales rising 47.7 per cent, while Saskatoon saw a 27.3 per cent jump. Conversely, Vancouver’s luxury sales fell 19.8 per cent, and Toronto’s declined 16.9 per cent. Don Kottick, president of Re/Max Canada, stated that luxury is no longer defined solely by Canada’s largest urban centres, noting that smaller and mid-sized markets are experiencing increasing or stable conditions. Shaun Cathcart, senior economist at the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), highlighted that national home sales increased 5.5 per cent from April to May, driven disproportionately by Ontario. The report tracked activity across 12 major Canadian markets, underscoring a shift where buyers are broadening their horizons beyond historical wealth concentrations.

Why It Matters

This data indicates that the high end of the Canadian housing market is becoming more dynamic and regional, focusing less on where wealth has historically been concentrated and more on where buyers perceive value and long-term opportunity. The divergence between the growth in secondary markets and the contraction in primary hubs suggests that affluent buyers are taking a more measured approach in larger markets, likely due to uncertainty and affordability pressures. This rebalance means that luxury real estate is becoming more accessible and diverse, challenging the long-held assumption that Toronto and Vancouver are the sole destinations for high-net-worth individuals. For the broader economy, this shift highlights the resilience of the luxury segment despite slowdowns in sales and prices in many key Canadian markets, pointing to a potential decentralization of capital and demand.

Local Vancouver / Burnaby Context

In the Greater Vancouver area, the 19.8 per cent decline in luxury sales for homes priced at $3 million or more reflects a cooling in the upper echelons of the market. While Vancouver has traditionally been a hotbed for luxury real estate, the current data suggests that buyers are looking elsewhere for better value. This trend is not isolated to Vancouver; Hamilton saw a 20.9 per cent decline in luxury sales for homes over $1.2 million, and the Greater Toronto Area experienced a 16.9 per cent drop for homes over $3 million. The Island of Montreal and St. John’s, N.L., also reported declines of more than 10 per cent. This shift underscores a broader national pattern where economic diversification, population growth, and demand for lifestyle-oriented properties are supporting markets outside the traditional coastal giants. For local stakeholders in Burnaby and Vancouver, this indicates a potential softening in the ultra-luxury segment, even as the broader market sees modest national gains.

Market Impact

The practical impact of this shift is a redistribution of luxury demand across Canada. Buyers who might have previously defaulted to Toronto or Vancouver are now considering cities like Edmonton and Saskatoon, where property values may offer more relative value. This could lead to increased competition and price appreciation in these secondary markets, while the traditional hubs may see continued price stabilization or correction in the luxury tier. For sellers in Vancouver and Toronto, this means a more selective buyer pool and potentially longer days on market for ultra-luxury listings. Conversely, builders and developers in Edmonton and Saskatoon may see increased feasibility and demand for high-end projects. The national sales increase of 5.5 per cent from April to May, driven by Ontario, suggests that while the luxury market is rebalancing, overall activity is not in decline, but rather shifting geographically.

Builder / Developer Perspective

For builders and developers, the data suggests a shift in feasibility and demand. The strong performance in Edmonton, with 65 luxury sales in the first four months of the year and a 47.7 per cent growth rate, indicates robust demand for high-end properties in Alberta. Saskatoon’s 27.3 per cent increase further supports this trend. Developers in these markets may find it easier to pre-sell luxury units and achieve higher margins. In contrast, developers in Vancouver and Toronto may face challenges in the ultra-luxury segment, with sales declines of 19.8 per cent and 16.9 per cent respectively. This may lead to a recalibration of project scopes, with a focus on mid-luxury or more affordable options to maintain sales velocity. The shift also highlights the importance of location-specific factors, such as economic diversification and lifestyle appeal, in driving luxury demand.

BurnabyHouse Insight

The luxury market is no longer a monolith dominated by Toronto and Vancouver. The data from Re/Max Canada and CREA points to a maturing market where value, lifestyle, and economic fundamentals are driving decisions. For Burnaby and Vancouver residents, this means the ultra-luxury segment is cooling, but the broader market remains resilient. The shift to cities like Edmonton and Saskatoon is not just a trend but a structural change in how Canadians view luxury real estate. Investors and buyers should look beyond the coastal giants and consider the long-term potential of secondary markets, while remaining cautious of economic cycles and interest rate impacts. The rebalance is real, and it is here to stay.