What Happened

The number of completed but unsold condos and townhomes in Metro Vancouver surged to 3,215 in the second quarter of 2025, up from 2,304 in the first quarter, according to Rennie Intelligence. This sharp rise reflects a market where investors have largely exited, dropping from approximately 50% of buyers between 2021 and 2023 to just 7% in the first quarter of 2025. The unsold inventory is concentrated in the $800,000 to $1.2 million price range, with most units being smaller concrete highrises in Richmond, Burnaby, New Westminster, Vancouver West, and Coquitlam. While the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported that completed unsold condos doubled year-over-year to around 2,500, Rennie Intelligence’s revised methodology for the second quarter focused on actual site progress, lowering the count of units nearing completion to 412. The remaining empty stock is spread across 90 projects, with 15 projects holding nearly half of the unsold units. Third-quarter figures are expected to be available in three weeks.

Why It Matters

The data signals a structural shift in Metro Vancouver’s new housing supply, where the developer model reliant on investor speculation has collapsed. With investor demand evaporating, the market is left with a glut of inventory that end-user buyers are largely avoiding due to high prices and smaller floor plans. This disconnect threatens developer cash flow and future construction starts, as unsold inventory ties up capital and limits the ability to launch new projects. The situation highlights the difficulty in measuring market health, as noted by Andy Yan of Simon Fraser University, who emphasized that traditional metrics may not fully capture the current stagnation in the condo sector.

Local Vancouver / Burnaby Context

The unsold inventory is heavily concentrated in key suburban and urban hubs, with 930 units in Burnaby and New Westminster, 655 in Richmond and South Delta, and 313 in Vancouver West. This geographic spread indicates that the investor retreat is not isolated to one neighborhood but affects the broader Metro Vancouver supply chain. Historically, developers focused on building smaller units with tighter layouts to maximize price per square foot for investors, but end-user buyers now prefer older resale units with larger floor plans or new low-rise townhomes. The Urban Development Institute has suggested policy changes, such as expanding GST rebates to all new homebuyers for homes up to $1.5 million, to stimulate demand. However, Provincial Housing Minister Christine Boyle has stated that the government will not change the foreign buyer tax, though it is working on zoning and amenity contribution flexibility. The market remains mixed, with detached home sales rising 14% year-over-year in April while overall sales fell 2.5%, suggesting a bifurcation between the single-family and condo markets.

Market Impact

The glut of unsold condos exerts downward pressure on new home prices, forcing developers to consider price reductions that risk triggering losses. The market is becoming increasingly buyer-dominant, with Fraser Valley buyers maintaining leverage. The disconnect between new supply and end-user preferences means that new condos may remain on the market longer, affecting liquidity and price stability in the mid-to-upper price ranges. The decline in investor activity reduces speculative demand, which previously supported pre-sale launches but now leaves a void in the market.

Builder / Developer Perspective

Developers face significant financial risk as unsold inventory ties up capital and limits the ability to fund new projects. The shift from investor-driven sales to end-user demand requires a change in product design, moving away from smaller, high-yield units toward larger, more livable spaces. The Urban Development Institute has proposed policy adjustments, such as allowing residential rental properties in RRSPs and adjusting foreign buyer rules to permit investment with rental covenants, to help stabilize the market. However, the provincial government’s refusal to change the foreign buyer tax limits one potential avenue for restoring investor interest. Developers are also navigating construction slowdowns, which have reduced the number of units nearing completion, potentially easing future supply pressures.

BurnabyHouse Insight

The Metro Vancouver condo market is undergoing a painful correction as the investor-driven model collapses. The surge in unsold inventory to 3,215 units in Q2 2025 is not just a temporary blip but a reflection of a fundamental shift in buyer behavior. End-users are rejecting the smaller, expensive new condos in favor of resale homes or townhomes, leaving developers with a glut of product that no longer fits the market. This creates a precarious situation for builders, who must now navigate a buyer’s market with limited policy support. The key takeaway is that the era of speculative condo buying is over, and the market is now driven by genuine housing needs, which favors larger, more affordable options over high-density, high-price units.