What Happened

Canada experienced a record high in emigration in 2025, with Statistics Canada data confirming that 120,640 people left the country over the course of the year. This figure represents a significant increase from the 118,409 departures recorded in 2024. The surge in Canadians leaving is largely attributed to affordability pressures, high housing costs, and broader economic uncertainty.

Ontario was the primary driver of this trend, accounting for nearly half of all departures. Specifically, 56,266 residents left Ontario in 2025, a number that is disproportionately high relative to the province's share of the national population. British Columbia followed as the second-largest source, with 25,145 emigrants, while Quebec recorded 15,913 departures, marking the highest emigration level for the province since 1971.

The data also highlights a cooling in overall mobility within the country. Interprovincial migration slowed by approximately 9% year-over-year, and immigration to Canada fell by 19% in 2025. On a per-capita basis, British Columbia recorded the highest emigration rate at roughly 442 emigrants per 100,000 residents, compared to the national average of about 290 per 100,000 people.

Why It Matters

The record level of emigration, particularly the heavy concentration from Ontario and British Columbia, signals a significant shift in population dynamics that directly impacts housing demand and labor markets. When a province like Ontario, which houses nearly 40% of Canada's population, loses over 56,000 residents in a single year, it creates immediate downward pressure on rental vacancy rates and home sales volumes in major urban centers.

For British Columbia, the high per-capita emigration rate suggests that affordability constraints are forcing residents to leave the province entirely rather than just moving to cheaper areas within it. This exodus reduces the pool of potential buyers and renters, potentially slowing price growth or leading to corrections in overheated markets. The simultaneous 19% drop in immigration means that natural population replacement is not offsetting these losses, leading to a net population stagnation or decline in key economic hubs.

Furthermore, the 9% slowdown in interprovincial migration indicates that Canadians are becoming less mobile. This rigidity in the labor market can exacerbate regional housing imbalances, where areas with job growth cannot easily attract workers from other regions, thereby keeping housing demand artificially tight in specific pockets while leaving others with excess supply.

Local Vancouver / Burnaby Context

From a Greater Vancouver perspective, the 25,145 emigrants from British Columbia in 2025 represent a substantial loss of potential housing demand. While British Columbia had the highest per-capita emigration rate in the country, the absolute number of departures is significant enough to impact the regional housing market. Historically, BC has relied on strong interprovincial and international migration to support its housing construction pipeline and price stability. A sustained period of high emigration, coupled with falling immigration, challenges the assumption of continuous population growth that underpins many development forecasts.

The affordability pressures cited as drivers for emigration are particularly acute in the 低陆平原. High housing costs in Vancouver and Burnaby have long been a primary factor in residents considering relocation to Alberta or other provinces. The data confirms that this trend is not just a rumor but a statistically significant flow of people leaving the province. For the Burnaby and Vancouver markets, this means that the demand side is more sensitive to economic shifts than in previous years, as residents have viable alternatives in other provinces.

Additionally, the national cooling of mobility suggests that those who do leave BC may not be replaced by incoming residents from other provinces at the same rate. This contrasts with previous cycles where interprovincial migration helped balance regional housing pressures. The combination of high emigration and low immigration creates a tighter labor market and reduced consumer confidence, which can lead to a more cautious approach to real estate transactions among remaining residents.

Market Impact

The record emigration figures suggest a potential softening in housing demand across major Canadian markets, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. With over 56,000 people leaving Ontario and 25,000 leaving BC, the immediate effect is likely a decrease in rental demand and a slowdown in home sales volume as households are liquidated or left vacant.

For the condo market, which is often sensitive to population growth and investor sentiment, this trend may lead to increased inventory as owners decide to sell before further demand erosion. However, the impact may be uneven, with luxury segments potentially remaining resilient while entry-level and mid-range markets face greater pressure from reduced buyer pools.

The 19% drop in immigration further compounds this effect by removing a key source of first-time homebuyers and renters. This dual pressure of rising emigration and falling immigration could lead to a period of price stagnation or modest correction in markets that previously relied on rapid population growth to justify price increases.

Builder / Developer Perspective

The 9% slowdown in interprovincial migration and the record emigration rates pose challenges for builders who rely on population growth to justify new housing starts. With fewer people moving into or staying in key markets like BC and Ontario, the absorption rates for new developments may decrease, leading to potential oversupply risks.

Developers may need to adjust their pricing strategies and marketing approaches to attract a smaller pool of buyers. The high per-capita emigration in BC suggests that affordability remains a critical barrier, forcing potential buyers to look elsewhere. This may require builders to focus more on affordable housing products or to target markets with stronger population inflows.

BurnabyHouse Insight

The data reveals a critical inflection point for the Canadian housing market: the era of guaranteed population-driven demand is over. For Burnaby and Vancouver, the 25,145 emigrants from BC in 2025 are not just a statistic but a direct reflection of affordability limits. When the cost of living in BC pushes residents to leave at a per-capita rate of 442 per 100,000, it signals that the market is reaching its breaking point. Investors and buyers should recognize that the traditional drivers of housing growth—immigration and interprovincial migration—are weakening. This means that future price stability will depend more on local economic strength and supply constraints than on population growth, making the market more sensitive to economic cycles and policy changes.